What you need to know about the latest polls and forecasts 1 day ahead of the election
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Here is a map of how each state is predicted to vote on Election Day. Some states’ pollings are too close to call, making them key states to watch once polls close on Tuesday.
Ahead of Election Day, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton is likely to win the United States presidency and Democrats are likely to take control of the U.S. Senate, according to FiveThirtyEight’s prediction models.
Clinton, a former senator for New York and secretary of state, is given a 65.3 percent chance of defeating Republican nominee and business mogul Donald Trump on Election Day, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus forecast as of Sunday evening.
Clinton is projected by that model to garner about 292 electoral college votes — 22 more than the necessary 270 votes. The closest races are currently in Florida, Nevada and North Carolina, per the polls-plus model.
Clinton is also a heavy favorite in New York state, where the polls-plus forecast gives her a 99.7 percent chance to win. The state is worth 29 electoral college votes and has generally leaned left in past presidential elections.
Additionally, the U.S. Senate, currently controlled by Republicans, is up for grabs on Election Day. The polls-plus model gives the Democrats a 54.1 percent chance of gaining control. Some of the closest Senate races are in Indiana, Missouri, Nevada and New Hampshire, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast. The Democrats last had control of the Senate prior to the 2014 midterm elections.
In New York state, incumbent Democrat Sen. Chuck Schumer is given more than a 99.9 percent chance of defeating Republican challenger Wendy Long, according to the polls-plus model. Schumer has been a senator for New York since 1999.
Control of the U.S. House of Representatives is likely to remain with the Republican party.
Published on November 7, 2016 at 1:24 am
Contact Michael: mdburk01@syr.edu
