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Syracuse gets only one full day of preparation before hosting North Carolina on Monday night in the Carrier Dome for the 2020-21 home finale. 

Fans won’t be in attendance for the contest, cementing a full season without Orange fans in the renovated Dome. SU supplied New York state with its plan for fans, but the state hasn’t approved it yet. 

Here’s what you need to know about UNC:

All-time series 

North Carolina leads 14-5 with an average margin of victory of 5.6 points. 

Last time they played 

Syracuse has lost 10 of its past 11 matchups with the Tar Heels, including earlier this season in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. UNC thoroughly dominated the glass, outrebounding SU 48 to 31. It piled up 24 offensive rebounds and pulled away late after Quincy Guerrier fouled out, winning 81-75. 

North Carolina’s supersized frontcourt of Garrison Brooks, Armando Bacot and Day’Ron Sharpe combined for 39 points and 26 boards. They often kept possessions alive by tapping back or corralling missed shots from the perimeter. SU went scoreless for three minutes, which UNC turned into a 13-0 run. 

“They were just too big for us inside,” Jim Boeheim said postgame. 

For Syracuse, Guerrier recorded 23 points and 11 rebounds. Buddy Boeheim (18 points) and Alan Griffin (16) kept SU in it, but no other Orange player scored over six points. Boeheim said at the time that SU needed to play “almost perfect” on offense, and it wasn’t quite to that level in the Dean E. Smith Center. 

Kenpom odds 

North Carolina has a 52% chance at winning, with a projected score of 75-74. 

The Tar Heels report

UNC has been streaky recently. It sandwiched a rescheduled loss to Marquette with a 45-point win over Louisville and an upset of No. 11 Florida State. 

Featuring Brooks, Bacot, Sharpe and freshman Walker Kessler — who exploded for 20 points off the bench against FSU — UNC is the seventh-tallest team in the nation. It’s transferred that size into a 40.1% rebounding rate, the best in college basketball. 

Offensively, UNC likes to play through Brooks on the low post. It only shoots 30.9% from 3, which makes it tough to operate against SU’s 2-3 zone. 

How Syracuse beats North Carolina

The key against the Tar Heels is simple, but it’s easier understood than executed: Hold UNC to one shot per possession and force them to be jump shooters. North Carolina’s lifeblood is its inside presence, which also happens to be Syracuse’s softest spot. 

Boeheim has repeatedly pointed to SU’s forwards as the biggest issue of the zone. When the ball gets entered to the high post, it should be three defenders guarding two players. But Syracuse has lost in that situation too many times to count. In the first matchup, UNC put Brooks at the free-throw line, where he can attack, rise for a midrange jumper or find his teammate at the dunker spot. North Carolina also did a nice job screening the top of the zone, but it rarely hit on open looks. 

Tough shot-making from Buddy, Griffin and Guerrier kept SU in it the first time, but it’s unclear if SU has any antidotes defensively or on the boards. 

Player to watch: Caleb Love, 6-foot-4 freshman point guard

All three members of the Tar Heels’ star frontcourt are the obvious players to watch — they’re literally going to be the biggest people on the screen — but Love is UNC’s best perimeter creator. The freshman from St. Louis was the No. 2 point guard in the 2020 class, and he’s mostly lived up to the bill. Love is averaging 10.1 points and 3.7 assists per game, modest numbers that show his steady play. He’s started 21 of 23 games and exploded for 25 points and seven dimes against Duke.

Love is only shooting 31% from the field and 22% from deep, but if he can get going offensively as an additional factor for SU to worry about, the Orange will be in trouble. 

Stat to know: 40.1% 

North Carolina rebounds over two-fifths of its missed shots, the best mark in the nation. It’s a poor shooting team, so it needs to create extra possessions by keeping the ball alive. The rebounding edge is unequivocally UNC’s biggest advantage heading into the Dome on Monday. 

Published on February 28, 2021 at 11:01 pm

Contact Danny: dremerma@syr.edu | @DannyEmerman