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No. 7 Syracuse enters Saturday’s matchup with North Carolina following its first back-to-back losses this season. The Orange began the streak in South Bend, Indiana, where a five-goal fourth quarter wasn’t enough to come back against No. 1 Notre Dame. Last Tuesday, after the ejection of associate head coach Pat March in the first quarter, SU blew a seven-goal lead in a double overtime loss to No. 8 Cornell.

Now, the Orange have a chance to rebound on the road again in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. The Tar Heels haven’t been ranked since Week 6 of Inside Lacrosse’s poll, most recently recording just six scores in a loss to Virginia. UNC defeated SU at home two years ago, scraping by with a 14-13 win after a goal from Chris Gray with 15 seconds left.

Here’s how our beat writers believe No. 7 Syracuse (9-4, 1-1 Atlantic Coast Conference) will fare against North Carolina (6-5, 0-1 ACC) Saturday:

Zak Wolf (8-5)
No more
Syracuse 15, North Carolina 8

This isn’t the North Carolina of old. The Tar Heels have won five NCAA championships in its history, but since 2017 they’ve only made one postseason appearance. After a 7-7 season last year, UNC is hovering around the .500 mark once again. With Syracuse coming off an emotional loss, it’s hard to see North Carolina having enough offensive firepower to defeat the Orange.

SU’s keys to victory start with stopping UNC’s leading point-scorer Owen Duffy. Inside Lacrosse’s No. 1 recruit in the 2023 class has been forced to carry the offense this season with 29 goals and 20 assists. Syracuse has had mixed success dealing with elite individual attacks. Brennan O’Neill scored just once against SU while the Kavanagh brothers totaled two each against the Orange. But against Cornell, Michael Long and CJ Kirst combined for 10.

Syracuse should have enough on the back end to deal with Duffy as well as Logan McGovern and Dominic Pietramala — all three of whom account for over half of UNC’s goals this season. With March suspended, expect defensive coordinator John Odierna to step up and cultivate a strong game plan to make up for a possible lack of production on offense. North Carolina might hang around in the first half, but Syracuse will separate in the third quarter and get back on track.

Cooper Andrews (9-4)
Must-win
Syracuse 16, North Carolina 10

Even if the Orange lose out, they still have a 90% chance of qualifying for the NCAA Tournament, per Lacrosse Reference. Yet, make no mistake about it. Saturday is a must-win game for Syracuse.

By the time it enters Dorrance Field, Gary Gait’s squad will have had 11 days to think about its stunning defeat to Cornell. Nothing went SU’s way following March’s late first-quarter ejection. Its offense was lackluster, the faceoff unit struggled and Odierna’s defense couldn’t pick up the slack.

But with a lot of downtime to recollect itself, facing UNC — the ACC’s worst team — couldn’t come at a better time.

SU boasts the fourth-highest offensive efficiency in the nation (35.9%) while UNC sits at 38th (29.5%). The Orange have the 19th-best defensive efficiency mark (27.0%) compared to the Tar Heels’ No. 16th-ranked defense (27.0%). Syracuse has delivered major wins over Duke and Johns Hopkins and all of its losses have come by two goals or fewer, while North Carolina has dropped games by six-plus goals to Princeton and Virginia.

UNC is a solid program, though it’s a long way from being in the upper echelon of the ACC. I envision SU putting the Tar Heels in their place Saturday and nabbing a confidence-boosting victory heading into its season-finale against No. 2 Virginia.

Anish Vasudevan (10-3)
Revenge in Chapel Hill
Syracuse 12, North Carolina 7

North Carolina has been all over the place this season. The Tar Heels dominated their opening two nonconference matchups before scoring less than 10 goals in defeats to Johns Hopkins and Princeton. Then, UNC rebounded with a commanding win over Penn to kickstart a four-game win streak. But a loss to High Point, whom the Orange defeated 19-13 this season, began a disappointing three-game losing streak the Tar Heels are still in.

The topsy-turvy year has led to the Tar Heels having the worst shot percentage, save percentage, goal margin and goals per game in the conference. Their defense is solid, only giving up 10.00 goals per game, but the offense is still reeling from the loss of Gray two years ago. I don’t think they have the firepower to outscore SU Saturday, especially given Riley Figueiras’ high school experience against North Carolina’s third-leading scorer Pietramala.

Still, Syracuse has to be careful in Chapel Hill, where it lost two years ago by one goal. The Orange lead the ACC with 3.92 penalties per game, which was something that led to their demise against Cornell last week. UNC is tied for 15th nationally in man-up offense, so if the Orange get sloppy defensively, the game could swing in favor of the Tar Heels. But I don’t think it will.

Published on April 10, 2024 at 11:48 pm